Elections and Budgets

Interesting times!! The election is over we now know who the Governor is along with the Superintendent of Public Instruction (SPI). We also have the opinion of the electorate on issues of taxation, etc. Needless to say, there are lots of news articles, bloggers, and political pundits weighing in on what it all means.
Where there seems to be absolute clarity is with the idea of the budget – both current year (2010-11) and next year (2011-12). While all seem to understand the influence of special interests in the entire election process – there is a gorilla in the room that must be dealt with {an unfunded budget}. As such there seems to be all kinds of signs that there will be a mid-year modification of the current budget that is likely to affect us all. Governor-elect Brown has already indicated that he is reluctant to raise taxes without an affirmation of the people AND they just said (Prop 21) they aren’t interested in an $18 fee on their car registration.

As if this is not enough of a challenge for Governor-elect Brown and Superintendent-elect Torlakson, there is an issue of common core national standards. Clearly, and legislatively, California is committed to those common core standards. The challenge is that with a NEW set of standards – there is NO money to actually impement those standards. Implementation would probably at a minimum require: new textbooks, new training, and an entirely new state assessment system – ALL of which would require a substantial injection of dollars to support this development and deployment at the state and local level.

Again, realizing that all guesses are correct – some are just a bit closer – here’s mine. I am thinking that Governor-elect Brown acts quickly and creates a mid-year reduction for schools AND others to do what he can to reconcile a huge and growing (?) budget deficit. Followed by a rather draconian budget proposal for the 2011-12 budget year. Why? Because he “inherited a tough situation” and he believes it is his job to “fix it.” From a political view, if he doesn’t resolve it now it becomes “his” problem – if he resolves it now it is an “inheritance” issue.

Another view is that we have been focused in the last several years on the “Big 5” and their negotiations of a budget deal that is then ratified by the Legislature. Given the Prop 25 change (50% +1 to pass the budget) of the budget process, are we now faced with the appearance of a “Big 5” but the reality of a “Big 3?” There is no longer a functional need of Republican support to approve a budget – SO it would be entirely possible for the Governor and the Democratic leadership in the Assembly and Senate to determine a solution (“Big 3”) without much discussion or concurrence of the Republican representatives.

The Governor-elect still has some time before he is inaugurated into office – however, the race has begun.