Triggers and December/January

The pressing question that many of us in public education in California are facing is what are the current year budget projections AND does the Governor et al “pull the trigger.”  As you might recall, when the budget for this school year was passed by the Legislature in the summer, it included what many of us perceived as $4 Billion in revenue that no one could explain.  In fact, the budget terms the $4 B as “unallocated revenue income.”  The stated plan, was that if the money doesn’t show up (according to either the Legislative Analyst Office or Dept. of Finance report in December), then the state has a Legislative obligation to make mandatory reductions in the budget in the middle of the year – i.e., “pull the trigger”.

So month by month, many of us have been watching the revenue reports to see what is likely to happen – as reductions in the middle of the year are about the worst nightmare that public schools can imagine.  As of last week, after 4 months, here is the situation.

John Chiang, State Controller, reports that we are now $1.5 Billion below revenue projections.  Additionally, and possibly even more troubling, is the apparent fact that the state has not made it’s promised reduction in expenditures – therefore, we are now $1.7 Billion OVER the budgeted amounts.  Obviously, the net effect is a loss to the budget of $3.2 Billion.  This is a report of the first 1/3 of the year (4 months), clearly things can improve in the final 2/3; however, if we had to “guess” the next 2/3 one would not be optimistic.

Net effect?  More reductions to local school districts either in the mid-year or in the next budget year (2012-13).