Budget Progress

So we are about a month away from D-Day and the deadline for constructing and placing the Governor’s proposed tax extension measure on the June ballot. How’s it going? As come forward from the Governor’s “budget proposal” in early January we are beginning to see things shape up a bit. There are certainly a variety of articles from various sources regarding the merits or lack of with the Governor’s budget plan.

From my perspective, I appreciate the Governor’s courage, intent, and plan – but this seems to be anything other than a “sure” thing at this point. From a distance it appears that:

• The Governor’s plan is an “equal opportunity offender” in that both parties have lots to be upset about:
• The Republicans are obviously upset about the potential of an increase / extension of taxes for 5 more years – and they have signed a “no-tax pledge”
• The Democrats (though in the Legislative majority and the same party as the Governor) are facing huge reductions to some of their favorite programs with the proposed $12 Billion in reductions from Brown
• School officials and constituents are beginning to wrap their minds around the incredible level of reductions that are likely / promised if this tax measure does not make the June ballot and get passed.
• Probably instantly we lose $250 per student in the current year “deferral” that would not get delivered
• We would instantly lose another $350 per student for next year as the Prop 98 guarantee is reduced by $2 Billion – for a total loss of $600 per student
• All of those changes do NOT resolve the “hole” that is left in the Governor’s budget plan (another $10 Billion) – which will arguably mean more schools reductions as we “own” a significant share of the $10 Billion. Current estimates of resolving begin to sound like a $1,000 to $2,000 loss per student in total.

Only yesterday, Dan Walters of the Sacramento Bee and long-time Capitol observer noted well, "Many questions.  As yet, no answers."  Meanwhile the clock is ticking.